E-commerce has reshaped Dutch retail real estate, but it has not made it uninvestable. The structural shift toward online shopping has increased vacancy in weaker locations while reinforcing the value of prime high streets and convenience-driven formats. For international investors evaluating the Dutch retail real estate market, the picture is one of polarisation rather than uniform decline.
The Netherlands has one of the highest e-commerce penetration rates in Europe, which makes understanding its impact on retail property yields in the Netherlands essential before making any acquisition decision. The sections below address the most important questions investors ask when assessing e-commerce risk in Dutch retail property.
Which Dutch retail locations are most exposed to e-commerce pressure?
Secondary and tertiary shopping streets in mid-sized Dutch cities carry the highest e-commerce exposure. These B and C locations depend on a broad mix of comparison goods retailers – clothing, electronics, home goods – that have faced the steepest online competition. When anchor tenants leave or reduce their footprint, the surrounding retail ecosystem weakens quickly, and Dutch shopping street vacancy rates in these areas reflect that structural pressure.
The contrast with prime locations is sharp. A1 streets in cities like Amsterdam, Utrecht, Rotterdam, and The Hague have maintained strong footfall and tenant demand because they offer something online cannot replicate: brand visibility, experiential retail, and proximity to high-spending consumers. In the Netherlands, the gap between an A1 location and a B-location is not a matter of degree – it is a fundamentally different investment proposition.
Smaller towns with limited catchment populations are the most vulnerable. Where a city has a thin consumer base and no compelling reason for physical retail visits beyond pure necessity, e-commerce substitution runs deepest. Investors assessing retail real estate risks in the Netherlands should pay close attention to catchment size, income levels, and whether a location has a genuine reason for footfall beyond convenience.
How has e-commerce changed retail vacancy rates in the Netherlands?
E-commerce growth has contributed to a meaningful rise in retail vacancy across the Netherlands, particularly in non-prime locations. The vacancy rate on secondary streets and in weaker shopping centres climbed significantly through the 2010s and into the early 2020s, driven by a combination of online substitution, retailer consolidation, and an oversupply of retail space relative to sustainable demand.
However, the picture in 2026 is more nuanced. Prime high streets in the major Dutch cities have seen vacancy compress as surviving retailers concentrate their physical presence in the strongest locations. This flight to quality has created a two-speed market: prime streets with waiting lists for units, and secondary streets where structural vacancy has become the norm rather than the exception.
The footfall trends on Dutch shopping streets tell a similar story. Visitor numbers on top streets have recovered and, in some cases, exceeded pre-pandemic levels, while weaker retail areas have not recovered. For investors, this means vacancy risk is highly location-specific – aggregate national vacancy figures can be misleading without understanding where within the retail hierarchy a given asset sits.
Retail market research that goes beyond headline vacancy data to analyse specific streets, catchment dynamics, and tenant mix is essential for making this distinction accurately.
What retail formats have proven resilient to online competition?
Several retail formats have demonstrated consistent resilience to e-commerce pressure in the Dutch market. The most durable are those that deliver something inherently physical: grocery and daily convenience, food and beverage, health and beauty, and experiential retail. These categories either cannot be replicated online or benefit from the tactile and social dimensions of physical shopping.
- Supermarkets and food anchors: Grocery remains one of the most e-commerce-resistant retail categories. Standalone supermarkets and food-anchored centres have maintained strong occupancy and rental income, making them a preferred defensive asset class for investors seeking stable rental income from retail property in the Netherlands.
- Health, beauty, and personal care: Retailers in this segment have expanded their physical presence in the Netherlands even as e-commerce has grown, driven by the in-store experience and the importance of product trial.
- Food and beverage: Restaurants, cafes, and food concepts have filled space vacated by comparison goods retailers on many Dutch high streets, fundamentally changing the tenant mix of prime locations.
- Flagship and brand experience stores: International brands continue to seek prime Dutch locations for brand visibility. These tenants are less sensitive to e-commerce because their physical stores serve a marketing function as much as a transactional one.
PDV and GDV retail concentrations – large-format retail parks focused on furniture, DIY, and bulky goods – have also held up well, partly because the product category requires physical inspection and partly because logistics costs limit the competitiveness of online alternatives for large items.
How does e-commerce growth affect retail property valuations in the Netherlands?
E-commerce growth affects Dutch retail property valuations primarily through its influence on rental levels, vacancy risk assumptions, and yield expectations. Valuers assessing retail assets must now factor in a more granular view of sustainable market rent – particularly where passing rents were set during a period of stronger retailer demand and may no longer reflect what the market will support today.
In the Netherlands, the 303 market rent review process (huurprijsherziening) means that rents on retail leases are periodically tested against comparable market evidence. Where e-commerce has depressed retailer demand in a given location, this review mechanism can result in downward rent adjustments that directly affect asset income and therefore capital value. Investors holding assets in weaker locations have experienced this as a real financial risk, not a theoretical one.
At the prime end of the market, the dynamic is different. Scarcity of quality space on top Dutch high streets has supported or even grown market rents, and prime high street yields in Amsterdam and other major cities have reflected this through yield compression. The valuation gap between prime and secondary retail assets has widened considerably over the past decade, and e-commerce is a primary driver of that divergence.
Accurate valuation in this environment requires current, granular lease transaction data – not just published indices. Retail valuations and rent reviews carried out by specialists with access to live transaction data provide a materially more reliable basis for investment decisions than valuations drawn from general market benchmarks.
Should investors avoid Dutch retail real estate because of e-commerce?
No. E-commerce is a risk factor to price and locate correctly, not a reason to avoid Dutch retail real estate entirely. The Netherlands offers a stable legal framework, transparent market structures, and a high-spending consumer base that continues to support physical retail in the right locations. The question is not whether to invest, but where and in what format.
Investors who treat Dutch retail as a homogeneous asset class will misprice risk in both directions – overpaying for assets in structurally weakening locations and underweighting the value of genuinely prime assets where supply is constrained and tenant demand remains strong. The Dutch retail market outlook for 2026 reflects this complexity: investment volumes rose sharply in 2025, and institutional capital is returning selectively to the market, focused on prime high streets, food-anchored centres, and convenience retail.
The practical implication for international investors is that local intelligence is not optional – it is the core of the investment thesis. Understanding which specific streets, cities, and formats are performing requires more than macro data. It requires knowing which leases have been signed recently, at what rents, with which tenants, and under what lease terms. That level of granularity is what separates a well-priced acquisition from an expensive mistake.
KroesePaternotte has been active in Dutch retail real estate since 1984, with a lease transaction database covering virtually the entire Dutch retail market across four decades. That depth of data is what makes it possible to assess whether an asset is correctly priced, what realistic re-letting scenarios look like, and what the yield trajectory is likely to be over a hold period. For international capital entering the Dutch market, that local edge is the difference between a well-structured investment and an avoidable loss.
If you are evaluating Dutch retail assets and want to understand the e-commerce exposure of specific locations or formats, retail investment advisory from a specialist with live market intelligence is the most reliable starting point.
Related Articles
- How do you assess retail tenant quality in the Netherlands?
- How do you assess the quality of a Dutch retail location?
- What investment opportunities exist on the PC Hooftstraat?
- What is a market rent review in Dutch retail property?
- How large is the vacancy rate in Dutch shopping streets?
- Which Dutch cities have the strongest retail demand?
- Renting a small retail space in the city center: what should you look out for?